悬铃木方翅网蝽在我国的潜在分布分析

运用生态位模型MaxEnt和GARP对悬铃木方翅网蝽Corythucha ciliate(Say)在我国的潜在分布进行了模拟,并结合其寄主植物悬铃木在我国的分布进行了分析。实验采用悬铃木方翅网蝽在我国的分布数据,结合6种气候变量和海拔数据构建模型,并将MaxEnt和GARP的输出结果进行合意。研究显示MaxEnt和GARP的模拟结果基本一致,均能较好的模拟悬铃木方翅网蝽在我国的分布,二者均显示山东西南部和中部、四川中部和东部、重庆、陕西中部、河南中部和东部、安徽、江苏、上海、贵州、湖南、江西、浙江、福建中部和北部、云南中部等地区为悬铃木方翅网蝽的适宜分布区,此外,河北中部和南部、山东东部,广东和广西的北部亦具潜在分布的可能性。与MaxEnt输出结果相比,GARP相对较为保守。MaxEnt输出结果显示年平均气温和极端低温对悬铃木方翅网蝽地理分布的限制作用最大。考虑到该虫对高低温度的耐受性,我国二球悬铃木栽培的南界(南宁和广州)和北界(大连、北京、石家庄、太原)需要重视和监控起来。

Potential distribution of sycamore lace bug, Corythucha ciliate in China （ Hemiptera. Tingidae）

Potential distribution of Corythucha ciliate （Say） in China were predicted using two ecological niche modelling algorithms （i. e. , MaxEnt and GARP）. The models were calibrated using domestic records and 6 bioclimatic variables plus elevation. These potential distributions were then evaluated with respect to the distribution of pest host plant （ i. e. , Platanus spp. ）. Significant variables associating with the bug＇ s occurrence were identified. Both models performed good discriminability compared to random prediction. Result of GARP was a little conservative compared to MaxEnt. High suitable areas identified by the consensus of two models including ： southwestern and central Shandong, eastern and central Sichuan, Chongqing, central Shaanxi, eastern and central Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guizhou, Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, northern and central Fujian, and central Yunnan. In addition, the central and southern Hebei, eastern Shandong, and northern Guangdong and Guangxi also showed high suitability. Significant variables inferred by MaxEnt suggest that the annual mean and extreme low temperature are two major factors that explain bug＇ s distribution. Considering the bug＇ s tolerance to hot and cold temperature, the south （ Nanning and Guangzhou） and north border （ Dalian, Beijing, Shijiazhuang, Taiyuan） of Platanus acerifolia＇ s distribution should be monitored carefully as a result.