水稻白背飞虱发生程度的长期预测模型

气象条件影响白背飞虱Sogatellafurcifera发生发展 ,根据海气相互作用原理 ,海温的变化会引起大气环流系统的变化 ,同样制约各地气象条件。作者将西太平洋海温作为长期预报因子 ,根据场相关分析方法 ,找出与水稻白背飞虱发生程度各指标相关的强信号海区 ,应用最优化相关处理技术 ,大大增加了虫情发生指标和海温之间的相关度 ,建立了水稻白背飞虱始见期、迁入虫量及第五 ( 2 )代虫量可靠的长期预测模型 ,模型均通过了α=0 0 1显著性水平 ,拟合及试报结果理想 ,预报模型切实可行 ,可以投入业务使用 ,此研究对虫害防治和水稻生产具有重要指导意义

Long-term prediction models for the occurrence and development of white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera

The occurrence and development of the white-backed planthopper(WBPH) Sogatella furcifera is affected by local meteorological conditions.According to the theory of interaction between the sea and the atmosphere,the variation of the sea surface temperature(SST)incurs the atmospheric system to change,and also restricts the local meteorological conditions.In this article,it is found that the SST is obviously correlated with the occurrence,ingoing quantity and the fifth generation quantity of WBPH,with the method of field correlation analysis.The optimization correlation technique is used to pick out the most signal region of SST correlated strongly with the indices of WBPH,therefore,increased the correlation degree between them.A series of practicable models for long\|term prediction of WBPH are developed and the test results are good.The models can be used in operation and have important guide meaning to the pest prevention and cure in the rice production.