单季晚稻褐飞虱发生程度综合客观预报模型

以上海地区单季晚稻褐飞虱Nilaparvatalugens(St l)发生程度为研究对象 ,用地面气象因子、5 0 0hPa高空环流因子和北太平洋海温场因子 ,在挑选了相关系数较高且稳定性又好的预报因子后 ,在逐步回归和逐步判别分析方法基础上 ,集成建立了单季晚稻褐飞虱发生程度的长、中、短期客观预报模式。长期、中期和短期预报模式的起报时间分别为当年的 1月、3月和 8月中旬。这 3种预报模式对 1 985～1 998年的历史拟合和 1 999～ 2 0 0 2年的预报误差均在 1级以内。

Objective prediction models for damage caused by brown planthoppers to late planted rice

Based on step-regression and step-differentiating methods, long-, medium-, and short-range objective prediction models were established to predict degrees of damage caused by brown plantoppers to late planted rice. Predictors were selected according to their significance and stability of correlation coefficients with degrees of damage. The circumfluence on 500 hPa, sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific and surface meteorological data were used. The initial time of the long-, medium-, and short-term prediction models were January, March , and the mid-August respectively. Both the fitted and forecasted errors of these objective prediction models were within the same order of magnitude from 1985 to 2002.