小云斑鳃金龟雌蛹羽化动态数学模拟

雌蛹每日羽化数经常用对数代换后计算累积羽化率并转为机率值（Y）羽化日期用儒略历期编码（X）。两者相关回归结果为：Y=14．3490＋0．104lX；r=0．9951。由此回归方程计算每日理论羽化数对数值，并对实际羽化数对数值做适合性检验，得X2=3．69，表明两者之间的适合概率高达99％。文内还以此回归方程确定了雌蛹羽化动态的5个特征日期及其95％置信区间。

Mathematical simulation of the female pupal eclosion dynamics of Polyphylla gracilicornis Blanch

The correlation coefficient and regression equation were calculated between the probit units(Y') corresponding to the common logarithms of the actual eclosion numbers of the female pupae each day and their eclosion dates (X) coded with Julian Date. Results showed: Y' =-14. 3490 0.1041X; r=0.9951. The test of X2 between the estimared and the observed logarithms was conducted and its value equaled to 3.69, indicating that the adaptablity was higher than 99%. Based on the equation, 5 special dates and their 95% confident intervals for the eclosion dynamics was determined.