| 江苏省通州市稻纵卷叶螟中期预测预报的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周立阳,张谷丰.江苏省通州市稻纵卷叶螟中期预测预报的研究[J].昆虫知识,1995,32(5):257-260. |
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| 作者姓名： | 周立阳 张谷丰 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京农业大学植保系!210095(周立阳，张孝羲)，江苏省通州市植保站!226300(张谷丰，张建明，张治) |
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| 摘 要： | 利用多维时间序列分析方法，对江苏通州市稻纵卷叶螟各代次的发生高峰日、高峰日蛾量及世代累计蛾量提前1～2个月作预测，二年预测结果准确率平均超过85％，为害虫的中期预测预报提供了一种新的应用方法。另外，对如何选择预测预报因子也作了深入讨论。
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| 关 键 词： | 多维时间序列分析 稻纵卷叶螟 预测预报 |
On mid-term forecasting of rice leafroller in Touguhou City, Jiangsu Province |
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| Zhou Li-Yang,Zhang Xiao-Xi.On mid-term forecasting of rice leafroller in Touguhou City, Jiangsu Province[J].Entomological Knowledge,1995,32(5):257-260. |
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| Authors: | Zhou Li-Yang Zhang Xiao-Xi |
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| Abstract: | Climatic factors were used in CAR model as control variates to forecast emmigrating date.adults number in peek day and total adults number of rice leaf roller one to two months ahead of practical occurtence in Tong zhou city; Jiangsu Province. Average forecasting results of two successive years reached 85%. This article alsosupplied a new applicative method for mid-term forecasting of pest insects. In addition, methods of selecting factors were discussed. |
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| Keywords: | multiple dimensions time series analysis Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee forecasting |
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