| 数学判别模型在预测害虫种群动态上的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 丁世飞,周江莲.数学判别模型在预测害虫种群动态上的应用[J].昆虫知识,1997,34(2):75-77. |
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| 作者姓名： | 丁世飞 周江莲 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]山东农业大学基础部 [2]山东农业大学经贸学院 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据两个总体的Fisher判别准则，建立了预测害虫种群动态的数学判别模型，对山东省惠民县1967～1977年共11年二代棉铃虫发生程度的两类资料进行了数量分析，建立了数学模型：y＝0．0127x1－0．023X2，对历史资料的回代验证与独立样本的预测，符合率在90％以上。
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| 关 键 词： | 数学判别模型 种群动态 预测预报 |
Forecasting the population dynamics of inset pests by application of a mathematical discriminatory model |
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| DingShi-Fei.Forecasting the population dynamics of inset pests by application of a mathematical discriminatory model[J].Entomological Knowledge,1997,34(2):75-77. |
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| Authors: | DingShi-Fei |
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| Abstract: | According to Fisher decision rule, auhors deduced mathematical discriminatory model forecasting the occurrence amoun of the secondgeneration for 11 years of 1967 ~ 1977 in Huimin, Shandong Province. The resultstested the pest data showed that fitting rate was over 90%, and that accuracy of forecast was right. |
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| Keywords: | Mathematical discriminatory model population dynamics forecasting |
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