农业生态系统脆弱性评价方法

开展农业生态系统脆弱性评价是减缓气候、环境变化带来不利影响的重要环节.虽然近10年对不同的生态系统已经开展了一些脆弱性的评估研究,但尚未形成统一和公认的方法.本文以典型的农业生态脆弱区北方农牧交错带为研究对象,在分析影响其农业生态系统脆弱性主要因素基础上,选取了4类共17项指标构建了农业生态系统气候脆弱性评价指标体系.通过层次分析法确定了指标权重,并采用模糊评判原理,得出农业生态系统的气候脆弱性的综合定量评价方法.

Evaluation method of agro-ecosystem vulnerability

Evaluation of agro-ecosystem vulnerability is of significance in mitigating the negative impacts of climate and environment changes. Many researches aiming at different ecosystems have been made in recent ten years, but no generally recognized and identical methods were put forward. The farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China is a typical agro-ecosystem vulnerable region. Taking this area as an example and based on the analysis of the main factors affecting the vulnerability, an evaluation indices system of agro-ecosystem was built, with 17 indices of 4 types included. The weight of each index was determined by using analytical hierarchy process, and the method for comprehensively and quantitatively evaluating the vulnerability of agro-ecosystem was established based on the principles of fuzzy estimate.