基于系统动力学的崇明岛生态需水量预测

对上海市崇明岛现状生态需水分析的基础上,采用系统动力学方法对崇明岛规划年(2005-2020年)的生态需水量进行了预测.结果表明:崇明岛生态需水量在2010、2015和2020年分别为12.05、14.56和16.99亿m3,分别占本地水资源总量的35.86%、43.33%和55.57%;在生态需水组成中,森林和河流生态需水占大部分,城市绿地生态需水量所占的份额最小;在2010、2015和2020年,森林生态需水分别占生态需水总量的53.44%、56.87%和59.56%,河流生态需水分别占生态需水总量的26.31%、22.32%和19.48%,城市绿地生态需水量所占的份额分别为1.33%、2.47%和2.94%.

Prediction on ecological water demand in Chongming Island based on system dynamics

Based on the analysis of present ecological water demand in Chongming Island of Shanghai, and with the methods of system dynamics, this paper predicted and stimulated the ecological water demand in the Island in 2005-2020. The results showed that in 2010, 2015 and 2020, the ecological water demand would be 12.05, 14.56 and 16.99 hundred million cubic meters, accounting for 35.86%, 43.33% and 55.57% of the total local water resources, re- spectively. In the ecological water demand, forest and river would take a great portion, while urban green land would occupy the least. In the three forecasted years of 2010, 2015 and 2020, the ecological water demand of forest would be 53.44% , 56. 87% and 59.56% of the total, while that of river and urban green land would be 26. 31%, 22.32% and 19.48%, and 1.33%, 2.47% and 2.94%, respectively.