基于GIS的秋季连阴雨对农业生产影响的风险评估——以四川省盆地区为例

为探索秋季连阴雨对四川省盆地区农业生产的影响,利用盆地区102个气象台站1961—2014年逐日降水、日照时数、水文地形、作物种植面积等资料,从气象灾害要素、区域环境条件和承灾体特征几个角度构建灾害风险评估模型,进而获得能综合体现风险程度的评估指数,并以此为分区指标将四川省盆地区划分为5个风险区域.结果表明: 四川省盆地区秋季连阴雨风险最高的区域位于西南部的平坝和坡台地区、南部的浅丘地区、东北部的丘陵地区,以及嘉陵江和渠江的沿江地区,这些区域需要加强秋季连阴雨天气及其影响的预测和防御;盆周山区因地势起伏较大,耕地面积较少,连阴雨危害不重,属于低风险区;盆地其余地区大部介于较低风险与较高风险之间.

GIS-based risk assessment of the impact of continuous rain in autumn on agricultural production: A case study of the basin area in Sichuan Province,China

In order to explore the impact of continuous rain in autumn on agricultural production in the basin area of Sichuan Province, we established a general climate risk evaluation model based on the data of daily precipitation, sunshine hours, hydrology, topography, and crop acreage of 102 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014. This model analyzed the data from the angles of climate disaster components, regional environmental conditions and the features of hazard bearing body to produce an index that reflected the level of risk. Using the index, we divided the basin area into five risk zones. The results indicated that the areas with the highest risk of continuous rain in autumn were the flat and hilly areas in the southwest, the shallow hilly areas in the south, the hilly areas in the northeast, as well as the regions along Jialing River and Qujiang River. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the forecast and defense countermeasures of autumn continuous rain to these regions. The edges of the basin belonged to low risk zones due to their mountainous topography and limited availability of arable lands, and the damage of continuous rain was not heavy. The risk levels for the rest of basin ranged from relatively low to relatively high.