东亚飞蝗发生的生态因素辨识及监测预测

基于前人研究成果,对中国东亚飞蝗发生的孕灾环境及其主要影响生态因素进行辨识.结果表明:蝗灾的动态变化与气候变化关系密切;飞蝗分布界限受气候带的影响;发生基地具有类似的孕灾环境特征;飞蝗发生发展与水文、气候、土壤和植被等主要生态因素的一定指标阈值有密切关系;传统的飞蝗预测研究多着重分析各生态因子与飞蝗消长的数理统计相关关系,近年多在大尺度气候背景下探讨适宜中长期的预测方法,国内外利用遥感等多种现代化手段对蝗灾进行大范围监测.

Identification,monitoring and forecasting of Locusta migratoria manilensis outbreak and its affecting ecological factors

Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed the disaster-pregnant environments and key ecological factors of Locusta migratoria manilensis outbreak in China. The results showed that there was a close relationship between Locusta migratoria manilensis outbreak and climate change. The distribution of the locust was limited by climatic zones, and its outbreak centers had the similar disaster-pregnant environmental characteristics. The outbreak and development of the locust was closely related to the thresholds of the main ecological factors such as hydrological and climate conditions, soil, and vegetation. Traditionally, the forecasting of locust outbreak was paid more attention to the correlativity between the quantitative dynamics of the locust and related ecological factors, but recently, a medium- and long term forecasting was approached based on large-scale climatic observation, with modern technologies such as remote sensing adopted in monitoring large-scale locust outbreak.