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气候变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响
引用本文:王丽,霍治国,张蕾,姜玉英,肖晶晶,卢小凤.气候变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响[J].生态学杂志,2012,31(7):1673-1684.
作者姓名:王丽  霍治国  张蕾  姜玉英  肖晶晶  卢小凤
作者单位:1. 中国气象科学研究院,北京,100081
2. 全国农业技术推广服务中心,北京,100125
3. 浙江省气候中心,杭州,310017
4. 中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;南京信息工程大学,南京 210044
基金项目:公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目
摘    要:基于全国农区527个气象站点1961—2010年逐日气象资料、逐年农作物病害发生面积以及产量资料,从气温、降水、日照等角度,采用相关分析方法,研究了气候变化背景下各气象要素变化对中国农作物病害发生的影响。结果表明:近50年来,气候变化导致的各气象因子变化总体有利于病害发生,年平均温度以0.27℃·10a-1的速率升高,其每升高1℃,可导致病害发生面积增加6094.4万hm2次;年平均降雨强度以0.24mm·d-1·10a-1的速度增加,其每增加1mm·d-1,可导致病害发生面积增加6540.4万hm2次;年平均日照时数以47.4h·10a-1的速率减少,其每减少100h,可导致病害发生面积增加3418.8万hm2次;在气候变化导致的光、温、水变化中,温度增加对病害发生面积增加的影响最为显著,其次为日照时数减少、第三为平均降雨强度增大,其标准化回归系数依次为0.508、-0.374、0.112。

关 键 词:气候变化  农作物  病害发生面积  温度  降水  日照

Effects of climate change on the occurrence of crop diseases in China
WANG Li , HUO Zhi-guo , ZHANG Lei , JIANG Yu-ying , XIAO Jing-jing , LU Xiao-feng.Effects of climate change on the occurrence of crop diseases in China[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2012,31(7):1673-1684.
Authors:WANG Li  HUO Zhi-guo  ZHANG Lei  JIANG Yu-ying  XIAO Jing-jing  LU Xiao-feng
Institution:1,4(1 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;2 National Agriculture Technique Extension Service Center,Beijing 100125,China;3 Zhejiang Climate Center,Hangzhou 310017,China;4 Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China).
Abstract:Based on the 1961-2010 daily observation data from 527 meteorological stations and the annual data of the crop diseases occurrence area and crop yield in farming areas of China,this paper studied the effects of various meteorological elements(air temperature,precipitation,and sunshine hour) on the occurrence and development of crop diseases in China under climate change.As a whole,the variation of the meteorological elements induced by climate change in recent 50 years benefited the occurrence of crop diseases.The mean annual air temperature increased at a rate of 0.27 ℃·10a-1,and a 1 ℃ increase of the mean annual temperature could induce a 60.944 million hm2·time increase of the crop diseases occurrence area.The mean annual average precipitation intensity increased at a rate of 0.24 mm·d-1·10 a-1,and the occurrence area of crop diseases would be increased by 65.404 million hm2·time when this precipitation intensity increased by 1 mm·d-1.The mean annual sunshine hours decreased at the rate of 47.4 h·10 a-1,and a 100 h decrease of the sunshine hours could induce the crop diseases occurrence area increased by 34.188 million hm2·time.Among the variations of air temperature,precipitation,and sunshine hour under climate change,the increase of air temperature had the most significant effect on the increase of the crop diseases occurrence area,followed by the decrease of sunshine hours,and the increase of mean precipitation intensity,with the standardized regression coefficient being 0.508,-0.374,and 0.112,respectively.
Keywords:climate change  crop  disease occurrence area  temperature  precipitation  sunshine
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