气候变化对中国农作物虫害发生的影响

基于1961—2010年全国农区527个气象站点气象资料、全国病虫害资料以及农作物种植面积等资料,对全国虫害发生面积与气象因子采用相关分析法,分析了气象要素变化对虫害发生的影响。结果表明:气候变化背景下,年平均温度、平均降水强度分别以0.27℃.10a-1、0.24mm.(d.10a)-1的速度增长,年日照时数以47.40h.10a-1的速度减小;年降水量增长速率为0.14mm.10a-1,但波动较大;虫害发生面积率距平与平均温度、平均降水强度距平呈显著正相关,平均温度、平均降水强度分别每增加1℃、1mm.d-1,虫害发生面积率增加0.648、0.713,虫害发生面积将增加0.96、1.06亿hm2次;虫害发生面积率距平与年日照时数距平呈显著负相关,其每降低100h,虫害发生面积率增加0.40,虫害发生面积将增加0.59亿hm2次;总体上,虫害发生面积率距平与年降水量距平的关系不明显。虫害发生面积率距平与年平均小雨量、微雨量雨日数、小雨量雨日数距平呈显著负相关,3个因子分别每减少1mm、1d、1d,虫害发生面积率增加0.014、0.066、0.052,发生面积将增加0.02、0.10、0.08亿hm2次。

Effects of climate change on the occurrence of crop insect pests in China

Based on the 527 meteorological stations observation data as well as the diseases and pests data and planted crop areas data in China agricultural areas in 1961-2010,and by the method of correlation analysis,this paper analyzed the effects of the changes of meteorological elements on the occurrence of insect pests.Under the background of climate change,the mean annual air temperature and mean precipitation intensity increased at a rate of 0.27 ℃·10 a-1 and 0.24 mm·(d·10 a)-1,respectively,while the annual sunshine hours decreased at a rate of 47.40 h·10 a-1.The annual precipitation intensity increased at a rate of 0.14 mm·10 a-1,but had great fluctuations.There were significant positive correlations between the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area and that of mean annual air temperature and precipitation intensity.When the mean annual air temperature increased by 1 ℃,the increasing rate of insect pests’ occurrence area would be 0.648,and the occurrence area would be increased by 0.96×108 hm2·time;when the mean annual precipitation intensity increased by 1 mm·d-1,the increasing rate of insect pests’ occurrence area would be 0.713,and the occurrence area would be increased by 1.06×108 hm2·time.The rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area had a significant negative correlation with that of annual sunshine hours.When the annual sunshine hours decreased by 100 h,the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area would be increased by 0.40,and the occurrence area would be increased by 0.59×108hm2·time.Overall,the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area had little correlation with that of annual precipitation,but significant negative correlations with the rate anomaly of mean annual small precipitation,days of micro-precipitation,and days of small precipitation.When the mean annual small precipitation,days of micro-precipitation,and days of small precipitation decreased by 1 mm,1 d,and 1 d,the rate anomaly of insect pests’ occurrence area would be increased by 0.014,0.066 and 0.052,and the occurrence area would be increased by 0.02×108,0.10×108,and 0.08×108 hm2·time,respectively.