区域农业经济气象敏感性和气象经济效益

以江苏省南京市六合区、泰州市兴化地区和徐州市邳州地区为代表,根据1982—2009年气象和社会经济统计资料,运用农业经济-气候模型(C-D-C模型),分析3个代表性区域的农业经济气象敏感性,并构建新的农业气象服务效益评估模型,对气象经济效益进行研究评估。结果表明,影响3个区域农业经济产出的关键气象因子和关键时段有所不同,但温度类气象因子对3个区域农业经济产出具有显著正向影响,降水类气象因子对六合区农业经济产出具有显著负向影响。通过新的农业气象服务效益评估模型,计算了3个区域各关键气象因子对农业气象服务的贡献率,并得出2009年度六合区、兴化市和邳州市等3个区域的气象经济效益分别约为0.972、1.130和0.845亿元。

Meteorological sensitivity and meteorological services economic benefit of regional agricultural economy

Based on the meteorological and social-economic statistical data in 1982-2009, and by using agricultural economy-climate model (C-D-C model), this paper analyzed the meteorological sensitivity of the agricultural economy in three representative areas (Luhe District of Nanjing, Xinhua County of Taizhou, and Pizhou County of Xuzhou) of Jiangsu Province. A new model for assessing the economic benefit of agro-meteorological services was developed to evaluate the agro-meteorological services economic benefit in these areas. There existed somewhat differences in the key meteorological factors and crucial periods affecting the agricultural economy outputs among the three areas, but air temperature had significant positive effects on the agricultural economy outputs in all areas while precipitation had significant negative effects in Luhe District. With the newly developed assessment model, the contributions of various key meteorological factors to the agro-meteorological services were quantified, and the calculation showed that the economic benefit of agro-meteorological services in Luhe, Xinhua, and Pizhou in 2009 was about 97.2, 113.0, and 84.5 million Yuan, respectively.