CLUE-S模型在南京市土地利用变化研究中的应用

土地利用/覆盖变化模型是研究区域景观动态并解释其驱动机制的重要技术手段.应用CLUE-S模型,在Landsat TM影像等相关数据支持下,对南京地区1998-2006年土地利用的时空动态变化进行了研究.结果表明:各土地利用类型变化受地形因素影响最大,人均GDP与城镇用地和农业用地的分布呈显著相关,城乡主干道对土地利用变化的贡献显著大于省级及以上道路;海拔较高区域林地的发生比率较高,而地形低平区域农田、城建用地的发生比率较高.经检验,在300 m空间分辨率水平,对南京地区2003年、2006年土地利用状况模拟的精度分别达到了85.7%和84.1%;而通过将研究区分成若干子区,分别修正模型参数并重新模拟,准确率提高到89.7%和88.3%,分区赋值法有效地提高了模拟精度.研究表明,CLUE-S模型对城市发展的空间结构也有较强的预测能力,对指导城市规划、分析景观动态的驱动机制有重要参考价值.

Application of CLUE-S model in simulating land use changes in Nanjing metropolitan region

Land use and cover change(LUCC)models are the important tools in researching regional landscape dynamics and its driving mechanisms.With the application of CLUE-S(Conversion of Land Use and Its Effects at Small Regional Extent)model and under the support of Landsat remotely sensed data,this paper simulated the land use changes in Nanjing metropolitan region from 1998 to 2006.The results indicated that the land use changes were mostly affected by topography,and the distribution of urban land and agricultural land were significantly related with GDP per capita.Moreover,the urban-rural trunk roads made a much greater contribution to land use changes than provincial roads.Generally,high-altitude region tended to benefit the odds ratio of woodland,while flat and low terrain benefited all the odds ratios of farmland and settlement.The accuracy of the simulation approached to 85.7% in 2003 and 84.1% in 2006 at 300 m spatial resolution,while as the parameters were recalculated according to the partial conditions and given divisionally,the accuracy of the model improved remarkably to 89.7% in 2003 and 88.3% in 2006.The results suggested that CLUE-S had a strong capability of predicting the changes of land use types,and even,the spatial structure of landscape,being available in urban planning and in researching the driving mechanisms of land use change.