新疆生态系统服务时空变化及权衡协同关系

基于CASA模型、RUSLE模型和InVEST模型定量测算了新疆1982-2015年的净初级生产力(NPP)、土壤保持和产水三种生态系统服务物质量。使用空间分析和热点分析方法对生态系统服务的分区差异进行了刻画,并使用Sen趋势度方法分析了生态系统服务的时空变化趋势,进一步基于逐像元偏相关分析,对三种生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系及时空变化进行了分析。结果表明:1982-2015年,新疆NPP年际变化较为稳定,呈现逐渐增加的趋势,土壤保持和产水量的年际变化波动较大;NPP与土壤保持、产水之间为协同关系;土壤保持与产水之间呈现明显的协同关系,且主要是强协同关系;NPP与土壤保持的协同关系在全省范围内有弱化趋势,NPP与产水之间由权衡关系过度到协同关系,土壤保持和产水协同关系先强化后弱化。

Spatial-temporal changes and tradeoff/synergy relationship of ecosystem services in Xinjiang.

We quantitatively estimated net primary productivity(NPP),soil conservation and water yield from 1982 to 2015 in Xinjiang based on CASA model,RUSLE model,and InVEST model.The spatial analysis and hot spot analysis were used to characterize the regional variation of ecosystem services.The Sen’s method was used to analyze the temporal and spatial variations of ecosystem services.The tradeoffs and synergies among three ecosystem services were explored based on partial correlation analysis.From 1982 to 2015,the variation of annual NPP in Xinjiang was relatively stable with an increasing trend,whereas the inter-annual variation of soil conservation and water yield fluctuated greatly.Both soil conservation and water yield were positively correlated with NPP.The changes of soil conservation and water yield were synergistic,and the strong synergies being dominant.Over the whole examined period,the synergistic interaction between NPP and soil conservation tended to weaken in the whole province.The relationship between NPP and water yield transferred from tradeoffs to synergies.The synergies between soil conservation and water yield were strengthened first and then weakened.