1961-2010年中国东部林区降水的完整日值序列建立与变化特征

高精度地对各气象站缺测降水资料进行插补，从而获得完整序列的降水资料，对于提高气候变化影响分析的时空精度具有十分重要的意义.本文利用空间相关和逐步回归法，对东部林区月内有单日缺测或不多于7 d缺测的降水资料进行插补，最终建立了853个站自1961-2010年完整序列的降水资料.在此基础上，应用趋势分析法，分析了1961-2010年降水量、降水日数和极端降水事件的变化特性.结果表明： 1961-2010年，研究区年降水量略呈不显著增加趋势，倾向率为5.58 mm·(10 a)^-1，年代际变化明显；年降水日数呈显著减少趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量呈显著上升趋势，倾向率分别为0.12 d·(10 a)^-1、10.22 mm·(10 a)^-1.尤其是20世纪90年代以后，该区极端降水事件明显偏多偏强，极端降水量对总降水量的比率也呈显著增加趋势.极端降水日数和极端降水量均在1993年发生突变.

Establishment of a complete daily time series of precipitation and its change characteristics in forest region of Eastern China during 1961-2010.

To accurately interpolate the missing precipitation data from meteorological observation stations within a region to obtain a complete precipitation series is of significance in improving the spatial and temporal resolution in analyzing the effects of climate change. By using spatial correlation and stepwise regression techniques, this paper interpolated the missing precipitation data for an individual day or less than 7 days in a month from  the 853 meteorological stations in the  forest region of Eastern China in 1961-2010, as a consequent establishment of  the complete time series precipitation datasets of the observation stations in 1961-2010 established. Based on these, trend analysis approach was applied to analyze the variation characteristics of the annual precipitation, annual precipitation days, and extreme precipitation events in the  region in 1961-2010. During the study period, the annual precipitation in the region presented an insignificant increasing trend, with a tendency of 5.58 mm·(10 a)-1, but the decadal variation was obvious. The annual precipitation days reduced significantly, while the annual extreme precipitation days and extreme precipitation volumes increased significantly, with a tendency of 0.12 d·(10 a)-1 and 10.22 mm·(10 a)-1, respectively. Since the 1990s, the extreme precipitation events became frequently and intensively, and the proportion of the volumes of extreme precipitation to total precipitation increased significantly. Both the extreme precipitation days and the volumes of extreme precipitation had an abrupt change in 1993.