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两种温室气体排放方案下我国水稻产量变化模拟
引用本文:陈玲,夏俊,李宇庆,仇雁翎,赵建夫,李金柱.两种温室气体排放方案下我国水稻产量变化模拟[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(1):65-68.
作者姓名:陈玲  夏俊  李宇庆  仇雁翎  赵建夫  李金柱
作者单位:1. 中国农业大学农学与生物技术学院, 北京, 100094;2. 中国农业科学院农业环境和可持续发展研究所, 北京, 100081
基金项目:上海市房屋土地资源管理局 2 0 0 1重点资助项目 (FD2 2 0 0 10 0 0 60 2 )
摘    要:利用最新的温室气体和SO2排放方案,即政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)排放情景特别报告(SRES)的A2和B2方案,通过区域气候模式PRECIS和作物模型CERES-Rcie相嵌套,在50 km×50 km网格尺度下,模拟了未来2080年我国水稻产量的变化.结果表明,两种温室气体排放方案下,我国水稻的年平均单产水平各地有增有减,增产地区主要集中在长江及长江流域以南地区,其中四川和湖北交界的山区增产幅度最大,减产地区主要集中在华北平原和东北平原;由于CO2的肥效作用,A2温室气体排放方案对我国水稻单产的正面影响大于B2方案,A2排放方案下,我国水稻总产呈现一定程度的上升趋势,B2排放方案下,水稻总产表现为少量下降.

关 键 词:SRES  气候变化  水稻  模拟
文章编号:1000-4890(2005)01-0065-05
收稿时间:2003-12-08
修稿时间:2004年4月26日

Investigation on the soil baseline in Shanghai Chemical Industrial Park
CHEN Ling ,XIA Jun ,LI Yuqing ,QIU Yanling ,ZHAO Jianfu ,LI Jinzhu.Investigation on the soil baseline in Shanghai Chemical Industrial Park[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2005,24(1):65-68.
Authors:CHEN Ling  XIA Jun  LI Yuqing  QIU Yanling  ZHAO Jianfu  LI Jinzhu
Institution:1. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100094, China;2. Institute of Agro-Environment and Sustainable Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing 100081, China
Abstract:Based on the investigation of soil environment baseline in Shanghai Chemical Industrial Park,we obtained the element baselines of the soil and distribution types in the Park,and compared with other areas to find out the similarity and difference.The results showed that the contents of Cd,Hg and Zn in this area were higher,and As,Hg,Pb and Ni appeared a strip of high level in newly-built reclamation land.There were little difference in the contents of As,Cr and Zn in vertical profile,while Hg was accumulated in topsoil,and Mn was accumulated in the near ground water zone.The research will provide scientific support for environmental protection,monitoring assessment and countermeasures in the future.
Keywords:Shanghai Chemical Industrial Park  soil environment  elements  baseline  
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