新疆蝗虫发生的大气环流背景及长期预测

对1952-2005年新疆蝗虫的发生面积与大气环流74项特征指标值进行相关研究.结果表明:新疆蝗虫发生与大气环流密切相关;筛选确定了北非副热带高压、北半球极涡面积指数、冷空气、亚洲纬向环流指数、印缅槽等与蝗虫发生面积相关的关键指标.其中,北非副热带高压对新疆蝗虫发生的影响主要是通过影响4-6月的降雨量,从而影响蝗卵孵化、蝗蝻的发育及蝗虫的发生.将筛选出的39个大气环流特征因子作为预报因子,通过逐步回归,得出拟合较好的4个预测模型.研究结果为蝗灾的预测预报提供理论依据.

Atmospheric circulation background and long-term prediction of grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang

The study on the correlations between grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang from 1952 to 2005 and seventy-four characteristic indices of atmospheric circulation showed that the grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang had a close relationship with atmospheric circulation. The strength of North African subtropical high, northern extend of North Mrican subtropical high, area of northern hemisphere polar vortex, zonal index over Asia, strength of India-Burma trough, and frequency of cold-air intrusion into China were selected as the key indices related to the grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang. North African subtropical high mainly affected the rainfall in April- June, which in turn, affected the development of grasshopper eggs and nymphs, and thus, the grasshopper occurrence. With 39 characteristic indices of atmospheric circulation as prediction variables, and through stepwise regression, four prediction models were constructed to forecast the grasshopper occurrence in Xinjiang.