东北地区近44年的气候暖干化趋势分析及可能影响

东北地区位于我国最高纬度，是受全球气候变暖影响增温最显著的地区之一，有其独特的气候变化特点。利用东北地区近44年来较密集的气象观测资料，运用Yamamoto检测、趋势系数和气候倾向率等方法分析了该区域的气候时空变化规律、突变特征和暖干化趋势等，并初步探讨了这种变化对生态环境的可能影响。结果表明，东北地区总体气候变化存在暖干化倾向，气候暖干化趋势存在着季节性差异和地域性差异，暖干化趋势在夏、秋季及环境脆弱区的三江平原和科尔沁沙地及周边地区表现更为明显，由此引起的生态环境变化问题应引起重视。

Climatic warming-drying trend in Northeastern China during the last 44 years and its effects

Northeastern China is one of the areas mostly influenced by global change and has particular climate characteristics. According to the data from 1949, climate changes, including climate jumps and climatic warming-drying trend, during the last 44 years were analyzed with the methods of Yamamoto check and climate trend coefficient. Possible effects of this change on eco-environment were discussed. The results showed that the climate in the area trended to become warming-drying, with seasonal and regional differences. It was more obvious in summer and autumn and in sensitive areas such as Sanjiang Plain and Horqin sandy land. Eco-environment problems resulted from the climate change should be recognized.