山东半岛丘陵区典型流域河流径流的影响因素分析

应用3S技术生成数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM),解译出大沽夹河流域范围。采用空间内插法计算流域内年平均降水量,通过选择流域内人类活动的人口数量、GDP、土地利用现状以及气候变化的降水量和气温等9个因子,采用单因子相关分析和主成分分析(PCA)方法,分析了各因素及综合因素对径流量的影响。单因子分析表明,降水量、林地和果园与径流量的相关程度显著。主成分分析表明,人口数量、耕地面积、果园面积、林地面积和水域面积对径流量影响较大,占所有分析因子贡献率的73.96%;降水量对径流量的影响次之,因子贡献率为11.38%。

Affecting factors of runoff in typical river basin of hilly area in Shandong Peninsula

In this paper,a digital elevation model(DEM) for the Dagujia River basin in Shandong Peninsula was created by 3S techniques,and the precipitation in this basin was calculated by interpolation method.Nine factors,including population,GDP and land use type that reflected human activities,and precipitation and air temperature that reflected climate changes,were adopted to analyze their effects on the runoff in the basin by using association analysis and principal component analysis(PCA).The results of association analysis showed that precipitation,woodland and orchard had significant correlation with runoff.The PCA results indicated that population,cropland,orchard,woodland and water land that reflected human activities were the major affecting factors of runoff,and their cumulative proportion reached to 73.96%.Precipitation was the second major factor of runoff,and its cumulative proportion reached to 11.38%.