2011—2050年黄淮海冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力评价

基于区域气候模式PRECIS输出的未来B2气候情景（2011—2050年）逐日资料以及基准气候时段（1961—1990年）的逐日资料,应用农业生态区域(AEZ)模型,对2011—2050年我国黄淮海地区冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力时空变化特征进行预测.结果表明： 基准气候时段下,我国黄淮海地区冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力的空间分布呈现一定的区域分异规律,总体均呈东南高、西北低的趋势,且同纬度地区的沿海高于内陆.1961—1990年,冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力的变化幅度分别在3893～11000和5908～12000 kg·hm^-2.未来B2气候情景下,冬小麦、夏玉米气候生产潜力的年际变化很大,这与该时期作物生长发育光、温、水的匹配程度有关.冬小麦、夏玉米分别在2011—2030年和2021—2040年间气候生产潜力的增加趋势非常明显,开发潜力很大.在保持现有生产状况下,未来B2气候情景下,2011—2050年冬小麦气候生产潜力在空间上总体呈现明显的区域分异,表现为东南地区与西北地区的反向变化、沿海地区与内陆地区之间的同向变化；而夏玉米气候生产潜力的区域分异规律不明显.

Climatic potential productivity of winter wheat and summer maize in Huanghuaihai Plain in 2011-2050.

Based on the daily data under B2 climate scenario (2011-2050) and baseline climate condition (1961-1990) extracted from the regional climate model PRECIS, and by using the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) model, a prediction was conducted on the possible spatiotemporal changes of the climatic potential productivity of the two crops in the Huanghuaihai Plain in 2011-2050. Under baseline climate condition, the climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize presented a regional differentiation, i.e., higher in southeast and lower in northwest regions, and higher along coast and lower in inland at the same latitudes, and fluctuated within the ranges of 3893-11000 kg·hm^-2 and 5908-12000 kg·hm^-2,respectively. Under B2 climate scenario, the climatic potential productivity of winter wheat and summer maize would have a greater inter-annual change, due to the different matching degrees of light, temperature and water during the growth periods of the crops. The climatic potential productivity of winter wheat in 2011-2030 and summer maize in 2021-2040 would have an obvious increase, with great potential for development. Under the conditions of maintaining the present production, the climatic potential productivity of winter wheat in 2011-2050 would present an overall regional differentiation of reverse change in southeast and northwest regions and the same change in coastal and inland areas, whereas the climatic potential productivity of summer maize in 2011-2050 would have little regional differentiation.