Among‐colony synchrony in the survival of Common Guillemots Uria aalge reflects shared wintering areas |
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Authors: | TOBY J REYNOLDS MICHAEL P HARRIS RUTH KING ROBERT L SWANN DAVID C JARDINE MORTEN FREDERIKSEN SARAH WANLESS |
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Institution: | 1. School of Mathematics and Statistics and Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling, University of St Andrews, The Observatory, Buchanan Gardens, St Andrews, Fife KY16 9LZ, UK;2. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian EH26 0QB, UK;3. 14 St Vincent Road, Tain, Ross‐shire IV19 1JR, UK;4. 49 Bellfield Road, North Kessock, Inverness IV1 3XX, UK;5. Department of Arctic Environment, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, PO Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK‐4000 Roskilde, Denmark |
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Abstract: | Spatiotemporal variation in survival may be an important driver of multi‐population dynamics in many wild animal species, yet few scientific studies have addressed this issue, primarily due to a lack of sufficiently comprehensive and detailed datasets. Synchrony in survival rates among different, often distant, subpopulations appears to be common, caused by spatially correlated environmental conditions or by movement of animals from different sites such that their ranges overlap. Many seabird populations are effectively isolated during the breeding season because colonies are widely separated, but over the winter, birds disperse widely and there may be much mixing between different populations. The non‐breeding season is also the period of main mortality for seabirds. Using mark–recapture and ring‐recovery data, we tested for spatial, temporal and age‐related correlations in survival of Common Guillemots Uria aalge among three widely separated Scottish colonies that have varying overlap in their overwintering distributions. Survival was highly correlated over time for colonies/age‐classes sharing wintering areas and, except in 2004, was essentially uncorrelated for those with separate wintering areas. These results strongly suggest that one or more aspects of the winter environment are responsible for spatiotemporal variation in survival of British Guillemots, and provide insight into the factors driving large‐scale population dynamics of the species. |
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Keywords: | Common Guillemot long‐term studies mark– recapture– recovery data Markov chain Monte Carlo Program MARK spatiotemporal variability Uria aalge |
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