A double bootstrap approach to Superposed Epoch Analysis to evaluate response uncertainty |
| |
| Institution: | 1. Tree Ring Laboratory, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA;2. Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10027, USA;3. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, 10025, USA;4. Ocean & Climate Physics, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, 10964, USA;5. Department of Geography and Development and Laboratory of Tree Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA;6. Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK;7. Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 106-91, Sweden;1. Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic;2. School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St., Andrews, UK;1. The College of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China;2. The Key Laboratory of Earth System Observation and Simulation of Henan Province, Kaifeng 475004, China;3. National Demonstration Center for Environment and Planning (Henan University), Kaifeng 475004, China;1. Yunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Institute of International Rivers and Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, China;2. Key Laboratory of Tree-ring Physical and Chemical Research of China Meteorological Administration/ Xinjiang Laboratory of Tree-ring Ecology, Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, China;3. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA;4. Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing, China;1. Department of Medicine at the Doherty Institute, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia;2. Australian-German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia;3. Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA;4. Harvard University Center for the Environment, Cambridge, MA, USA;5. Health Research Institute, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Bruce, ACT, Australia;6. Department of Medicine, St Vincent''s Hospital, University of Melbourne, Fitzroy, VIC, Australia;7. Victorian Infectious Diseases Service, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, Parkville, VIC, Australia;1. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States;2. Department of Earth and Spatial Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho, United States;3. Faculty of Science, Charles University in Prague, Prague, Czech Republic;1. School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA;2. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, USA;3. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA;4. School of Geography and Geosciences, University of St Andrews, UK;5. Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK;6. Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK;7. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland;8. Global Change Research Centre and Masaryk University Brno, Czechia;9. Department of Environmental Science, William Paterson University, Wayne, NJ, USA;10. Department of Geography, Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany;11. Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden;12. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK;13. Natural Resources Institute Finland, Rovaniemi, Finland;14. Navarino Environmental Obs., Messinia, Greece;15. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Göteborg, Sweden;p. Siberian Federal University, Krasnoyarsk, Russia;q. Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Czechia;r. Department of Geography, Justus Liebig University, Giessen, Germany;s. Tree Ring Lab, The College of Wooster, Wooster, OH, USA;t. Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG), Hamburg, Germany |
| |
| Abstract: | The association between climate variability and episodic events, such as the antecedent moisture conditions prior to wildfire or the cooling following volcanic eruptions, is commonly assessed using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA). In SEA the epochal response is typically calculated as the average climate conditions prior to and following all event years or their deviation from climatology. However, the magnitude and significance of the inferred climate association may be sensitive to the selection or omission of individual key years, potentially resulting in a biased assessment of the relationship between these events and climate. Here we describe and test a modified double-bootstrap SEA that generates multiple unique draws of the key years and evaluates the sign, magnitude, and significance of event-climate relationships within a probabilistic framework. This multiple resampling helps quantify multiple uncertainties inherent in conventional applications of SEA within dendrochronology and paleoclimatology. We demonstrate our modified SEA by evaluating the volcanic cooling signal in a Northern Hemisphere tree-ring temperature reconstruction and the link between drought and wildfire events in the western United States. Finally, we make our Matlab and R code available to be adapted for future SEA applications. |
| |
| Keywords: | Tree-rings Fire-scars Volcanos Wildfire Uncertainty Resampling Bootstrap Disturbance Western US Dendrochronology Dendroclimatology Paleoclimate |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
