马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群生存力模拟分析

采用漩涡模型Vortex mondel 7.3，模拟了马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群在未来100年内的变动趋势。结果显示，在无交配限制，无密度制约，无近亲交配衰退等条件下，马边大风顶自然保护区大熊猫种群数量呈下降趋势；在考虑近交衰退的影响后，遗传多样性水平降低，灭绝率提高；竹子开花虽能加速大熊猫种群的绝灭，但由于保护区分布有多个竹种，因此并不会对大熊猫种群产生灾难性影响；但是人为捕杀可迅速减少大熊猫种群数量，加速其灭绝过程。因此，对该保护区大熊猫进行保护的最重要措施就是严格控制人为捕杀，并保护栖息地及走廓带。

ASIMULATION MODEL FOR POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS OF GIANT PANDA IN MABIANDAFENGDING NATURE RESERVE

A simulation model for population viability analysis of giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) inhabiting in Mabian Defending Nature Reserve was conducted by using software Vortex 7 3. The simulation shows that the population size of giant panda for the next 100 years is to decline even without density limitation, inbreeding depression, and catastrophe. When considering inbreeding depression, the population genetic diversity will be reduced and the extinction probability will be increased. Although bamboo blooming can accelerate the population extinction of giant panda, it will not cause a catastrophic effect since the Nature Reserve has quite a few bamboo species. However, poaching would greatly accelerate the population extinction. The conservation strategy for the giant panda populations in Mabian Natural Reserve is to prohibit poaching and to protect their habitats and adjacent corridors.