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European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern
Authors:ANNETTE MENZEL  TIM H SPARKS  NICOLE ESTRELLA  ELISABETH KOCH  ANTO AASA  REIN AHAS  KERSTIN ALM‐KÜBLER  PETER BISSOLLI  OL'GA BRASLAVSK   AGRITA BRIEDE  FRANK M CHMIELEWSKI  ZALIKA CREPINSEK  YANNICK CURNEL   SL G DAHL  CLAUDIO DEFILA  ALISON DONNELLY  YOLANDA FILELLA  KATARZYNA JATCZAK  FINN M GE  ANTONIO MESTRE   YVIND NORDLI  JOSEP PE UELAS  PENTTI PIRINEN  VIERA REMI&#x;OV   HELFRIED SCHEIFINGER  MARTIN STRIZ  ANDREJA SUSNIK  ARNOLD J H VAN VLIET  FRANS‐EMIL WIELGOLASKI  SUSANNE ZACH  ANA ZUST
Institution:Department of Ecology, Technical University Munich, 85350 Freising, Germany,;NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Monks Wood, Cambridgeshire PE28 2LS, UK,;Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics, 1190 Vienna, Austria,;University of Tartu, 51014 Tartu, Estonia,;Swedish Museum of Natural History, 10405 Stockholm, Sweden,;German Meteorological Service, 63067 Offenbach, Germany,;Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, 83315 Bratislava 37, Slovak Republic,;Faculty of Geography and Earth Sciences, University of Latvia, Riga LV-1586, Latvia,;Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Humboldt-University, Berlin, 14195 Berlin, Germany,;Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia,;Centre Wallon de Recherches Agronomiques, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium,;Botaniska Analysgruppen i Göteborg, 40530 Göteborg, Sweden,;MeteoSwiss, 8044 Zürich, Switzerland,;Department of Botany, Trinity College, Dublin 2, Ireland,;Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications CEAB-CSIC, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra, Catalonia, Spain,;Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, 01-673 Warszawa, Poland,;Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1432 Ås, Norway,;Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, 28040 Madrid, Spain,;The Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 0313 Oslo, Norway,;Finnish Meteorological Institute, 00101 Helsinki, Finland,;Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Ostrava 70800, Czech Republic,;Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, Ljubljana, Slovenia,;Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands,;University of Oslo, 0316 Oslo, Norway
Abstract:Global climate change impacts can already be tracked in many physical and biological systems; in particular, terrestrial ecosystems provide a consistent picture of observed changes. One of the preferred indicators is phenology, the science of natural recurring events, as their recorded dates provide a high-temporal resolution of ongoing changes. Thus, numerous analyses have demonstrated an earlier onset of spring events for mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the growing season. However, published single-site or single-species studies are particularly open to suspicion of being biased towards predominantly reporting climate change-induced impacts. No comprehensive study or meta-analysis has so far examined the possible lack of evidence for changes or shifts at sites where no temperature change is observed. We used an enormous systematic phenological network data set of more than 125 000 observational series of 542 plant and 19 animal species in 21 European countries (1971–2000). Our results showed that 78% of all leafing, flowering and fruiting records advanced (30% significantly) and only 3% were significantly delayed, whereas the signal of leaf colouring/fall is ambiguous. We conclude that previously published results of phenological changes were not biased by reporting or publication predisposition: the average advance of spring/summer was 2.5 days decade−1 in Europe. Our analysis of 254 mean national time series undoubtedly demonstrates that species' phenology is responsive to temperature of the preceding months (mean advance of spring/summer by 2.5 days°C−1, delay of leaf colouring and fall by 1.0 day°C−1). The pattern of observed change in spring efficiently matches measured national warming across 19 European countries (correlation coefficient r =−0.69, P <0.001).
Keywords:climate change  Europe  growing season  meta analysis  phenology  season  temperature response  trend
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