Alteration of forest succession and carbon cycling under elevated CO2

Regenerating forests influence the global carbon (C) cycle, and understanding how climate change will affect patterns of regeneration and C storage is necessary to predict the rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) increase in future decades. While experimental elevation of CO₂ has revealed that young forests respond with increased productivity, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how the long‐term dynamics of forest regrowth are shaped by elevated CO₂ (eCO₂). Here, we use the mechanistic size‐ and age‐ structured Ecosystem Demography model to investigate the effects of CO₂ enrichment on forest regeneration, using data from the Duke Forest Free‐Air Carbon dioxide Enrichment (FACE) experiment, a forest chronosequence, and an eddy‐covariance tower for model parameterization and evaluation. We find that the dynamics of forest regeneration are accelerated, and stands consistently hit a variety of developmental benchmarks earlier under eCO₂. Because responses to eCO₂ varied by plant functional type, successional pathways, and mature forest composition differed under eCO₂, with mid‐ and late‐successional hardwood functional types experiencing greater increases in biomass compared to early‐successional functional types and the pine canopy. Over the simulation period, eCO₂ led to an increase in total ecosystem C storage of 9.7 Mg C ha^‐1. Model predictions of mature forest biomass and ecosystem–atmosphere exchange of CO₂ and H₂O were sensitive to assumptions about nitrogen limitation; both the magnitude and persistence of the ecosystem response to eCO₂ were reduced under N limitation. In summary, our simulations demonstrate that eCO₂ can result in a general acceleration of forest regeneration while altering the course of successional change and having a lasting impact on forest ecosystems.