The influence of predation risk on diet selectivity: A theoretical analysis

Studies that have examined the effect of experimental increases in predation risk on diet selectivity have shown both decreased and increased diet selectivity. A possible explanation for these disparate results emerges from an examination of the prey sets used in these studies, which differed in the relationship between the values of risk components associated with the capture of different prey types (‘danger’) and their profitabilities. When less profitable prey were more dangerous, selectivity increased with predation risk. When prey were equally dangerous, selectivity did not change. Finally, when the more profitable prey were also more dangerous, selectivity decreased with risk. Here, we examine theoretically the influence of a forager's estimate of the probability that a predator is present (φ) on the selection of diets from prey sets with varying danger–profitability relationships. A dynamic programming model is used to determine the maximum attack time (or distance) for each of two types of prey, differing in their energetic content, for a range of forager energy state and φ levels. The diets which would result if foragers attacked prey according to the rules provided by the dynamic model are then determined. The model results indicate that the prey danger–profitability relationship determines the diet selectivity response to φ, confirming that variation in this relationship could be responsible for the range of experimental results. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.