Contributions of Ignitions,Fuels, and Weather to the Spatial Patterns of Burn Probability of a Boreal Landscape |
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Authors: | Marc-André Parisien Sean A Parks Carol Miller Meg A Krawchuk Mark Heathcott Max A Moritz |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 137 Mulford Hall 3114, Berkeley, California 94720, USA;(2) Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada, 5320 122nd Street, Edmonton, Alberta, T5H 3S5, Canada;(3) Rocky Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, USDA Forest Service, 790 E Beckwith Avenue, Missoula, Montana 59801, USA;(4) Department of Geography, RCB 7123, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, British Columbia, V5A 1S6, Canada;(5) Western Fire Centre, Parks Canada, 635 8th Avenue SW, Calgary, Alberta, T2P 3M3, Canada |
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Abstract: | The spatial pattern of fire observed across boreal landscapes is the outcome of complex interactions among components of the
fire environment. We investigated how the naturally occurring patterns of ignitions, fuels, and weather generate spatial pattern
of burn probability (BP) in a large and highly fire-prone boreal landscape of western Canada, Wood Buffalo National Park.
This was achieved by producing a high-resolution map of BP using a fire simulation model that models the ignition and spread
of individual fires for the current state of the study landscape (that is, the ‘control’). Then, to extract the effect of
the variability in ignitions, fuels, and weather on spatial BP patterns, we subtracted the control BP map to those produced
by “homogenizing” a single environmental factor of interest (that is, the ‘experimental treatments’). This yielded maps of
spatial residuals that represent the spatial BP patterns for which the heterogeneity of each factor of interest is responsible.
Residuals were analyzed within a structural equation modeling framework. The results showed unequal contributions of fuels
(67.4%), weather (29.2%), and ignitions (3.4%) to spatial BP patterning. The large contribution of fuels reflects how substantial
heterogeneity of land cover on this landscape strongly affects BP. Although weather has a chiefly temporal control on fire
regimes, the variability in fire-conducive weather conditions exerted a surprisingly large influence on spatial BP patterns.
The almost negligible effect of spatial ignition patterns was surprising but explainable in the context of this area’s fire
regime. Similar contributions of fuels, weather, and ignitions could be expected in other parts of the boreal forest that
lack a strong anthropogenic imprint, but are likely to be altered in human-dominated fire regimes. |
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