A novel cellular automata approach: seed input/output of the alien species Leucaena leucocephala in the soil and the effects of climate changes

The potential impact of the soil seed bank of a given species and subsequent population persistence will depend on the robustness of the seeds against depletion. Invasiveness is frequently linked to this behavior and successful control of invasive species depends on reducing the size of their seed banks. We propose a hybrid model that simulates the seed bank dynamics in association with their physical dormancy (PD) based on experimental data on seed bank depletion of a Leucaena leucocephala population during the dispersal phase. The hybrid model uses cellular automata (CA) and Monte Carlo techniques. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the model delivers reproducible and reliable results. Then, we discuss the ability of the hybrid model to predict the effect of seasonal climate change. A 2.0 °C increase in temperature was enough to cause a considerable impact in the seed depletion curve, and after 1 year, ~?75% of the seeds had already disappeared from the seed bank. The proposed hybrid CA model can be used to study soil-stored seed banks with physical dormancy, and could be applied to other Fabaceae species with similar seed traits. We believe that this computational model contributes to a better understanding of seed bank dynamics and will aid in the control of invasive species and for testing different scenarios to reduce or eliminate seed banks that have already been formed.