2005-2015年四川省土地利用变化及驱动力分析

以2005、2010、2015年三期四川省土地利用栅格数据为基础，应用ENVI和GIS技术对数据进行预处理，采用土地利用转移矩阵与土地利用动态度模型，并结合四川省土地利用实际情况分析四川省2005-2015年土地利用变化特征，并利用SPSS软件对2005-2015年间统计年鉴上相关的社会经济数据进行因子分析，研究影响四川省土地利用变化的主要驱动力因素并分析其作用机理，为后来的四川省土地利用规划提供参考依据。结果表明：(1)四川省近10年土地利用类型面积变化较为频繁，表现为城乡居民工矿用地大幅度增加，但各类土地占比总量土地面积变化不大。(2)耕地、林地、草地始终为四川省的主要土地利用类型，占比较为均衡且保持性好，耕地处于25%左右，林地和草地始终处于35%左右。而城乡居民工矿用地、水域以及未利用地面积虽有变化但占比始终较小。(3)四川省土地利用存在明显的区域差异，东部土地利用程度高，西部利用程度低。林地和草地大量且长期集中在西部，城乡居民工矿用地则在东部集中，东西分布极不均衡，不利于四川省区域经济均衡发展。(4)影响四川省土地利用变化的主要驱动力因子为常驻人口数和GDP，常驻人口始终保持较大数额且稳步增长，保持劳动力人口数量的同时带来社会经济快速发展的结果，从而促使土地利用结构不断发生变化。

Analysis of land-use change and its driving forces in Sichuan province from 2005 to 2015

Based on the actual situation and land-use raster data of Sichuan Province in 2005,2010 and 2015,this paper analyzed the characteristics of land-use change combined with the actual situation in Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2015 by processing data with ENVI and GIS,and using Land Transfer Matrix and Dynamic degree model.Then the study utilized SPSS software to conduct factor analysis related to socio-economic data between 2005 and 2015,which helped to study the main driving forces and mechanism analysis of land-use change in Sichuan Province,and provided a reference for later land-use planning in Sichuan Province.The results showed that:(1)In recent 10 years,the area of land-use types in Sichuan Province changed frequently,which was reflected by the fact that the industrial and mining land in urban and rural residents had increased greatly,but the proportion of various types of land to the total land area had not changed much.(2)Cultivated land,woodland and grassland were the main land-use types in Sichuan province,accounting for a relatively balanced and well maintained proportion,with cultivated land at about 25%and woodland and grassland at about 35%.However,the proportion of industrial and mining land for urban and rural residents,water area and unused land had changed,but the proportion was still small.(3)There were obvious regional differences of land-use in Sichuan Province,with high degree in the east of Sichuan and low degree in the west of Sichuan.Woodland and grassland were concentrated in the west for a long time,while industrial and mining land for urban and rural residents in the east,and it showed great imbalance between two regions,which was not conducive to the balanced growth of regional economy in Sichuan Province.(4)The main driving forces of land-use change in Sichuan Province were influenced by the resident population and GDP.The resident population had maintained a large amount and steady growth,and consistent number of labor force which brings rapid social and economic development.Therefore,the land-use structures would be changed constantly.