基于投影寻踪回归方法对李小食心虫种群空间格局的分析

基于投影寻踪回归方法,对李小食心虫Grapholitha funebrana在美国杏李上分布的多维数据进行投影降维和寻优处理,结果表明美国杏李园李小食心虫的空间分布与美国杏李的方位和层次有密切关系,李小食心虫的幼虫主要聚集在美国杏李的中部和外部,并以东面和北面为重,南西两面和内部轻。在方位层次和方位上对李小食心虫的密度进行预测,预测结果与真实值符合优度较高。基于投影寻踪回归方法可以减少因变量太多所带来的误差影响,自变量越多估计值越精确变量之间微小的差距都能显示出很高的权重值。

A studied on the spatial pattern of Grapholitha funebrana populatin based on projection pursuit technology

Projction dimension reduction and optimaztion of dimentional data about the distribution of Grapholitha funebrana in U.S.A plum orchard were done based on projection pursuit(PP) technology. The result showed that spatial distribution of Grapholitha funebrana and directions and direction-levels were closely related on U.S apricot and plum. The larvae of Grapholitha funebrana aggregated on the centre and external of U.S plum, with much more larvae on the east and north. The density of Grapholitha funebrana forecasted in directions and direction-levels showed that the forecast and reality were in high optimization. The errors due to variables could be reduced by projection pursuit technology. Besides, the estimate could be much more accurate when there were more variables; and the tiny gap could show a very high weight value.