营口市城市及村镇聚落增长与土地利用变化的模拟预测

基于辽宁省营口市1988、1992、1997、2000和2004年5期Landsat TM卫星遥感影像数据，利用城市增长和土地利用变化模拟模型SLEUTH模拟预测了6种预案（当前趋势预案、无保护预案、适当保护预案、管理增长预案、生态可持续预案和区域及城市规划预案）下2005—2030年营口市城市及农村聚落的增长和土地利用变化情况.结果表明：1988—2004年，营口市城市及村镇聚落的增长面积为14.93 km²；1997—2004年，研究区水域、园地、矿山、耕地等土地类型面积的变化较大.2005—2030年，生态可持续预案下，营口市城市及村镇聚落的面积将缓慢增长，较好地保护耕地、林地等资源，但在一定程度上将限制城市及村镇聚落的增长；无保护预案下研究区城市及农村聚落的增长速度最快，耕地流失面积较大；当前趋势预案下，耕地流失面积与无保护预案相近，但耕地流失的格局不同；适当保护预案和管理增长预案下，耕地的流失面积较小；区域与城市规划预案下，城市及村镇聚落增长主要分布在城市开发区和城市周边地区.利用不同预案下的SLEUTH模型可以模拟不同土地管理政策对城市及村镇聚落增长和土地利用变化的影响，对我国实施统筹城乡发展、建设社会主义新农村具有指导意义.

Simulation and prediction of urban and rural settlement growth and land use change in Yingkou City.

Based on the 1988, 1992, 1997, 2000, and 2004 Landsat TM remote sensing data of Yingkou City, Liaoning Province, the urban and rural settlement growth and land use change in the city from 2005 to 2030 were simulated and predicted by using the SLEUTH urban growth and land use change model with six scenarios (current trend scenario, no protection scenario, moderate protection scenario, managed growth scenario, ecologically sustainable growth scenario, and regional and urban comprehensive planning scenario). The results showed that in the city, the increased area of urban and rural settlement growth from 1988 to 2004 was 14.93 km2, and the areas of water area, orchard, mine, and agricultural land changed greatly from 1997 to 2004. From 2005 to 2030, based on ecologically sustainable growth scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would have a slow increase, and agricultural land and forestland would be better protected; under no protection scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would have a rapid increase, and large area of agricultural land would be lost; under current trend scenario, the agricultural land loss would be similar to that under no protective scenario, but the loss pattern could be different; under moderate protection scenario and managed growth scenario, the agricultural land would have a smaller loss; while under regional and urban comprehensive planning scenario, the urban and rural settlement growth would be mainly distributed in urban development area and urban fringe. The SLEUTH model with different scenarios could simulate how the different land management policies affect urban and rural settlement growth and land use change, which would be instructive to the coordination of Chinese urban and rural settlement development and the socialist new rural reconstruction.