突变级数法在厦门城市生态安全评价中的应用

针对港湾快速城市化地区存在的潜在突变特性，基于P-S-R(压力-状态-响应)框架和突变级数法，构建了评价城市生态安全的突变模型，并对1996—2006年厦门城市生态安全进行了评价.结果表明：1996—1998年，快速城市化对厦门市区域生态安全的影响不大，研究区生态安全状况呈上升趋势；1998—2001年，由于大范围高强度的填海造地、人口激增等生态干扰远远超过了生态系统自身的修复能力，导致厦门城市生态安全状况呈快速下降趋势；2001—2006年，厦门城市生态安全整体水平回升，主要受其海湾型生态城市重大战略转变的影响；2006年，研究区系统压力安全级别为Ⅲ，说明厦门市还存在着生态安全隐患.突变级数法反映了单一指标极值情况对生态系统突变的影响，弥补了现有方法在此方面的不足，它既减小了权重赋值的主观性，又避免了主观判断安全标准的不确定性，可准确地反映城市生态安全的发展趋势.

Application of catastrophe progression method in assessing urban ecological security of Xiamen City, China.

Aiming at the potential catastrophic characteristics of coastal city under rapid urbanization, and based on the P-S-R (pressure-state-response) framework and catastrophe progression method (CPM), this paper developed a catastrophe model for the assessment of urban eco-security, and assessed the ecological security status (ESS) of Xiamen City from 1996 to 2006. The results showed that from 1996 to 1998, the ESS had an improving trend, revealing that the rapid urbanization in this period had less effect on the regional eco-security. From 1998 to 2001, owing to the large-scale and profound ecological disturbances from sea reclamation and rapid population increase that far overstepped the ecological remediation ability of Xiamen City's ecosystem itself, the ESS declined rapidly. From 2001 to 2006, the ESS improved again, because of the significant strategic transformation of Xiamen City from its original island-based configuration to a new eco-city with larger bay area. In 2006, the security of Xiamen ecosystem pressure remained at grade III, suggesting that this city still had a potential risk of ecological security. According to our research results, CPM revealed the catastrophic effects of large development projects on ecosystems when a single index was at extreme, and offset the drawbacks of existing methods in this regard. CPM also had less subjectivity in weight evaluation and less uncertainty in estimating the standard of security, and consequently, could evaluate the status and development trend of urban eco-security exactly.