城市化对区域生态足迹供需的影响

基于1994-2003年吉林省生态足迹时间序列,建立了城市化水平与生态足迹、生态盈亏、生态足迹强度的关系模型.结果表明:吉林省生态足迹、生态盈亏、生态足迹强度与城市化率呈显著相关;生态足迹随城市化的发展由1994年的每人1.59 hm2增至2003年的每人2.23 hm2,主要受城市化率和第三产业比例的影响;建筑用地、草地和化石燃料用地生态足迹的变化较显著,建筑用地生态足迹变化的驱动因素以人均GDP和第三产业比例为主,草地和化石燃料用地生态足迹主要受居民消费水平的影响;源于居民消费水平的驱动作用,吉林省生态赤字渐趋恶化,从1994年的每人0.319 hm2增至2003年的每人0.923 hm2;草地和化石燃料用地生态盈亏的变化最显著;在经济结构和消费结构优化的驱动下,研究期间生态足迹强度从每万元4.14 hm2降至2.35 hm2,而且仍具有较大的降低空间.通过调整经济结构和消费结构,吉林省可以消除生态赤字、实现自然资源的供需平衡.

Effects of urbanization on supply and demand of regional ecological footprint

Based on the time series of ecological footprint (EF) in Jilin Province from 1994 to 2003, the relationship models of EF, ecological budget, and EF intensity with urbanization level were established. The results showed that in Jilin Province, there existed significant correlations of EF, ecological budget, and EF intensity with urbanization level. Along with the development of urbanization, the EF in the Province increased from 1.59 hm2 x cap(-1) in 1994 to 2.23 hm2 x cap(-1) in 2003, which was mainly affected by the process of urbanization and the proportion of tertiary industry. The EFs of built-up land, pasture and fossil fuel land changed more markedly, among which, the EFs of pasture and fossil fuel land were mainly affected by domestic consumption, while that of built-up land was mainly affected by the GDP per capita and the proportion of tertiary industry. Owing to the increase of domestic consumption, the ecological deficit increased from 0.319 hm2 cap in 1994 to 0.923 hm2 cap(-1) in 2003. The changes in ecological budget of pasture and fossil fuel land were more remarkable. Under the effects of the optimization of economic structure and consumption structure, the EF intensity in the Province decreased from 4.14 hm2 x (10(4) Yuan)(-1) in 1994 to 2.35 hm2 (10(4) Yuan)(-1) in 2003, and there still had enough potential for the decrease. Through the optimization of economic structure and consumption structure, an ecological surplus and the balance between natural resources supply and demand in the Province could be achieved.