近30年辽宁玉米水分适宜度时空演变特征及农业干旱评估

引入农业气象干旱指标建立发育期尺度的玉米水分适宜度模型,利用1981-2010年辽宁52个气象站玉米发育期及常规气象数据,采用气候趋势分析和突变分析方法对玉米水分适宜度时空演变特征及农业干旱进行分析和评估.结果表明: 不同发育期水分适宜度变化趋势不同,出苗至七叶期(Ⅱ)、拔节至抽雄期(Ⅳ)及乳熟至成熟期(Ⅵ)分别在1994、1996和1999年发生气候突变,在30年内播种至出苗期(Ⅰ)、七叶至拔节期(Ⅲ)、Ⅳ和抽雄至乳熟期(Ⅴ)水分适宜度呈不显著增大趋势,Ⅱ和Ⅵ期呈减小趋势,其中Ⅵ期达到显著水平.水分适宜度气候趋势存在空间差异,不同等级干旱在各发育期发生的概率不同,Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ和Ⅵ期辽宁仅部分地区水分适宜度增大或减小趋势显著,这4个时期辽西北和辽南地区是水分适宜度高变异性区域,也是中、重度干旱的高发地区,而Ⅳ和Ⅴ期干旱发生频率较低,仅在相应地区发生轻、中度干旱.区域平均的水分适宜度能够对区域尺度上的农业干旱进行很好的评价.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of maize water suitability and assessment of agricultural drought in Liaoning Province,China from 1981 to 2010.

Maize water suitability (MWS) model was developed at growth stage scale. Frequency and severity of drought were evaluated by combining MWS estimates and agricultural meteorological drought indexes. The MWS at each growth stage was calculated by using maize observational data and conventional meteorological data at 52 sites in Liaoning during the period from 1981 to 2010. Based on the climatic trend and abrupt change analysis, spatiotemporal dynamics of MWS were investigated. Meanwhile, occurrence of agricultural drought and its severity were also estimated. The results showed that the variation of MWS largely differed at different growth stages. Climatic abrupt change happened in 1994, 1996 and 1999 at the stages of emergence to seven leaves (Ⅱ), jointing to tasseling (Ⅳ) and physiological maturity to maturity (Ⅵ). During the past 30 years, MWS showed an obvious increasing trend at the stages of sowing to emergence(Ⅰ), seven leaves to jointing(Ⅲ), Ⅳ and tasseling to physiological maturity(Ⅴ), while it showed a decreasing trend at the stages of Ⅱ and Ⅵ,and that at Ⅵ stage was statistically significant. In addition, the climatic trend of MWS showed apparently spatial variability. The frequencies of drought at different severities varied with maize growth stages. Areas of high variability of MWS were located in the Northwest and South of Liaoning at the stages of Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ and Ⅵ, where were also the regions of high frequency of mid and severe drought. At the stages of ⅣandⅤ, the frequency of drought was low and only light and mid drought occurred in few areas. In conclusion, the regional mean MWS could be capable to reasonably assess the agricultural drought in Liaoning at the regional scale.