基于系统动力学的辽宁省水环境承载力模拟与预测

应用系统动力学方法建立了水环境承载力模型，并结合层次分析法和向量模法，模拟了辽宁省水环境系统的动态变化，预测了2000—2050年辽宁省水环境在不同发展方案下的承载能力.结果表明：若保持现行发展方案不变，2000—2050年，辽宁省水环境承载力将呈逐年下降趋势；仅增加水资源供给、不进行科学合理的水环境保护与治理，将无法提高该区域水环境承载能力；只有将开源、节流、治污、减排等多种手段相结合，才能有效提高辽宁省水环境承载能力，促进该地区经济、社会和环境的协调发展.

Simulation and prediction of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaoning Province based on system dynamics model

By the methods of system dynamics,a water environmental carrying capacity(WECC)model was constructed,and the dynamic trend of the WECC in Liaoning Province was simulated by using this model,in combining with analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and the vector norm method.It was predicted that under the conditions of maintaining present development schemes,the WECC in this province in 2000-2050 would be decreased year after year.Only increasing water resources supply while not implementing scientific and rational management of water environment could not improve the regional WECC,and the integration of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the only effective way to improve the WECC and the coordinated development of economy,society,and environment in Liaoning.