气候变化背景下京津风沙源区人类活动对植被影响的量化分析

在气候变化背景下,将人类活动对植被的影响进行量化研究,对于区域生态管理具有重要的现实意义。本研究基于GIMMS NDVI3g数据、气象数据(气温、降水)和标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),运用相关分析和趋势分析,研究京津风沙源区1982—2014年不同时期的植被时空变化及其驱动因子,再利用回归分析和残差分析定量研究了不同时期不同亚区人类活动对植被变化的影响。结果表明: 1982—2014年,京津风沙源区77.1%的植被退化状况得到明显改善,64.1%的地区植被生长呈上升趋势,年均NDVI呈现东南向西北递减的趋势。不同时期植被动态研究显示,74.5%的地区在京津风沙源治理工程实施后植被增加,最明显的是晋北山地丘陵亚区。在气候因子中,降水与植被变化的相关性最强;生态工程等人类活动在京津风沙源区的大部分地区起到了积极的作用,尤其是晋北山地丘陵亚区达到了94.9%。

Quantitative analysis of the effects of human activities on vegetation in the Beijing-Tianjin sandstorm source region under the climate change

It is of great practical significance for regional ecological management to understand the quantitative impacts of human activities on vegetation under climate change. Based on GIMMS NDVI3g data, meteorological data (temperature, precipitation) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we used correlation analysis and trend analysis to examine the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation and its driving factors in different periods from 1982 to 2014 in the Beijing-Tianjin sandstorm source region. Regression analysis and residual analysis were used to quantify the impacts of human activities on vegetation changes in different sub-regions. The results showed that from 1982 to 2014, the degradation status in 77.1% of degraded vegetation was significantly improved and 64.1% of vegetation had an increasing trend in the study area, with mean annual NDVI decreasing from southeast to northwest. Vegetation coverage increased in 74.5% of the areas after the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin sandstorm source control project, with mountains in northern Shanxi showing the most obvious increases. Among all the climate factors, rainfall had the strongest correlation with vegetation change. Human activities, such as ecological engineering, played an active role in most areas, especially in mountains of northern Shanxi, where the contribution of human activities reached 94.9%.