场次暴雨条件下降雨和植被变化对洪水影响的定量评估——以彭冲涧小流域为例

降雨和植被是影响流域洪水的两个关键性因素,定量研究二者对洪水影响的贡献率,对流域的植被建设及水资源管理具有重要的科学意义。本研究以南方红壤区的彭冲涧小流域为对象,基于1983—2014年的地理信息数据和水文气象数据,利用Mann-Kendall检验法、累积距平法、HEC-HMS模型等分析该流域的暴雨和洪水特征,并定量评估降雨和植被变化对洪水影响的贡献率。结果表明: 1983—2014年间,彭冲涧小流域的暴雨量和洪水总量分别呈非显著上升和下降趋势。HEC-HMS模型对场次暴雨洪水的模拟效果较好,评价结果均在误差范围内。无论是对洪水总量,还是对洪峰流量,不同场次暴雨洪水的降雨和植被变化贡献率均存在差异。降雨和植被变化对洪水总量的平均贡献率分别为66.5%和33.5%,对洪峰流量的平均贡献率分别为58.9%和41.1%。本研究成果可为小流域洪水评价、植被建设和水土流失综合治理提供科学依据。

Quantitatively evaluate the effects of precipitation and vegetation variation to flood under the condition of single rainstorm: A case study of Pengchongjian small watershed,Jiangxi, China

Precipitation and vegetation are two key factors affecting floods in the watershed. Quantitative evaluating their contribution to flood is of great scientific significance to vegetation construction and water resources management. Based on the geographic information data and hydrometeorological data from 1983 to 2014, we analyzed the characteristics of rainstorm and flood in Pengchongjian small watershed in red soil region of South China by Mann-Kendall test method, cumulative anomaly method and HEC-HMS model, and quantitatively evaluated the contribution rate of precipitation and vegetation variation to flood. The results showed that the rainstorm volume and total flood volume in Pengchongjian small watershed from 1983 to 2014 showed a non-significant upward/downward trend, respectively. HEC-HMS model had good simulation effect on single rainstorm flood, with the evaluation results being within the error range. The contribution rates of precipitation and vegetation variation of different rainstorm floods were different with respect to the total flood volume or to the peak flow. The average contribution rate of precipitation and vegetation variation to the total flood volume was 66.5% and 33.5%, while to the peak flow was 58.9% and 41.1%, respectively. Our results could provide scientific basis for flood evaluation, vegetation construction and comprehensive control of soil erosion in small watershed.