气候变化对森林演替的影响

森林演替是森林生态动力源驱动下森林再生的生态学过程，自20世纪初建立群落演替理论以来，演替研究成为生态学研究中的热点．客观准确地认识森林演替规律，研究森林演替动力学机理及其模型，是科学管理森林生态系统的需要；对于天然林保护工程与森林植被的恢复重建，具有重要的理论与实际意义．干扰是森林循环的驱动力，导致森林生态系统时空异质性，是更新格局和生态学过程的主要影响因素．它可改变资源的有效性，干扰导致的林隙是森林循环的起点．回顾了目前演替研究的几种方法，即马尔科夫模型、林窗模型(GAP)、陆地生物圈模型(BIOME)和非线性演替模式．介绍了气候变化对森林演替的影响；并在已有成果的基础上，提出了目前研究存在的问题及未来的发展方向．

Effects of climate change on forest succession

Forest regeneration is an important process driven by forest ecological dynamic resources.More and more concern has been given to forest succession issues since the development of forest succession theory during the early twentieth century.Scientific management of forest ecosystem entails the regulations and research models of forest succession.It is of great practical and theoretical significance to restore and reconstruct forest vegetation and to protect natural forest.Disturbances are important factors affecting regeneration structure and ecological processes.They result in temporal and spatial variations of forest ecosystem,and change the efficiencies of resources.In this paper,some concepts about forest succession and disturbances were introduced,and the difficulties of forest succession were proposed.Four classes of models were reviewed:Markov model,GAP model,process-based equilibrium terrestrial biosphere models(BIOME series models),and non-linear model.Subsequently,the effects of climate change on forest succession caused by human activity were discussed.At last,the existing problem and future research directions were proposed.