川西雅江地区过去567年3—8月干旱变化的树轮重建

使用零信号去趋势法建立了四川甘孜州拉日玛采点川西云杉标准化树轮宽度年表。结果表明: 云杉树轮年表与雅江3—8月一个月时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI1)间存在显著正相关。由树轮年表当年与次年序列重建了雅江地区1442—2008年3—8月SPEI1指数变化,方差解释量达42.8%。重建序列主要揭示了历史时期SPEI1的低频变化。川西雅江地区3—8月SPEI1在过去567年中存在1442—1465年、1516—1601年和1836—2008年3个偏湿阶段,位于其间的为2个偏干阶段;重建序列在1455—1762年间存在显著变干趋势,而1833—1950年具有显著变湿趋势,1959—2008年的变湿趋势最为明显;3—8月SPEI1重建值在1512、1733、1767、1831、1941、1957和1975年发生了从干旱向湿润的突变,而在1684年与1961年则相反。与周边气候重建序列的对比显示,川西雅江地区3—8月SPEI1重建序列的低频变化与青藏高原东北部年降水量和祁连山东段北坡SPEI05指数的变化具有一定相似性。该重建序列对青藏高原东部及青海南部的3—8月SPEI1变化具有较好的代表性。

Tree-ring reconstruction of March-August drought variability over the past 567 years in the Yajiang region of West Sichuan Plateau,China

We constructed standard tree-ring-width chronology of Picea likiangensis var. rubescens for the Larima sampling site in the Ganzi Prefecture, Sichuan Province, by the single-free detren-ding method. The results showed that there was significant and positive correlation between the tree-ring chronology and March-August 1-month scale standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI1) of Yajiang region. The variation of the March-August SPEI1 sequence for 1942-2008 was reconstructed based on the current and last year sequences of the tree-ring chronology, with an explained variation of 42.8%. The newly reconstructed series mainly represented the variation of SPEI1 in the low-frequency domain over the historical period. Three wet periods were found in 1442-1465, 1516-1601 and 1836-2008, while the two intervals were dry periods for the March-August SPEI1 reconstruction in the Yajiang region of West Sichuan Plateau. There was a significant drying trend in 1456-1762 for the reconstructed sequence, a significant wetting trend in 1455-1762, while the wetting trend was the most significant in 1959-2008. Mutation test showed that the sudden changes from dry to wet for the March-August SPEI1 reconstructions occurred in 1512, 1733, 1767, 1831, 1941, 1957 and 1975, while that in 1684 and 1961 was the opposite. The comparison with surrounding region showed a good coherence of variations in the low-frequency domain among the SPEI1 reconstruction for the Yajiang region, the annual precipitation reconstruction for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and the SPEI05 reconstruction for the northern slope of the eastern Qilian Mountains. The reconstructed sequence well represented the variation of the March-August SPEI1 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and the southern Qinhai Province.