川滇生态屏障区景观生态风险评价及影响因素

探究重点生态功能区景观生态风险时空演变特征,揭示人类活动对景观生态风险恶化的潜在影响,对防范和化解景观生态风险、促进区域可持续发展具有重要意义。以2000、2010、2020年土地覆被数据为基础,运用ArcGIS 10.8和Fragstats 4.2等软件,基于景观格局指数和脆弱度指数构建景观生态风险评价模型,借助空间分析方法,揭示川滇生态屏障区景观生态风险时空演变特征,采用地理探测器测度不同区域范围的自然和社会经济因素对景观生态风险的影响。结果表明: 2000—2020年间,研究区人造地表、水体、灌木地面积总体呈上升趋势,林地、耕地、草地、湿地、裸地、冰川永久积雪面积总体呈下降趋势,景观类型转移以林地、草地、耕地间转移为主,其中,耕地转人造地表最显著;景观生态风险平均值有所下降,景观生态风险等级分布与景观类型变化及转移特征较为一致;研究区整体上以低生态风险、较低生态风险和较高生态风险等级为主;景观生态风险的时空演化特征总体受高程、降水等自然因素影响,经济社会及区域可达性对局部风险恶化区的影响较为突出。

Landscape ecological risk assessment and influencing factors in ecological conservation area in Sichuan-Yunnan provinces,China.

It is important for preventing and resolving landscape ecology risk and promoting regional sustainable development to explore the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of landscape ecology risk of key ecological function zone and to reveal the potential influence of human activity on aggravation of landscape ecological risk. Based on the land cover data of 2000, 2010, and 2020, we constructed a model of risk assessment on landscape ecology, incorporating a landscape index and an assessment of ecological vulnerability, with the support of ArcGIS 10.8 and Fragstats 4.2. The spatial analysis method was used to examine the temporal and spatial variations of landscape ecology risk in ecological conservation in Sichuan-Yunnan provinces. We used the Geodetector to quantify the impacts of natural and social-economy factors in different ranges of region on landscape ecological risk. The results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the area of artificial land surface, water body, shrubland in the study area showed an upward trend, while the area of forest, cultivated land, grassland, wetlands, barren land, and permanent snow cover and glacier showed an downward trend. There was remarkable transfer of landscape types among forest, grassland and cultivated land, especially for the transfer from cultivated land to artificial surface. The mean value of landscape ecological risk had been reducing. The classes of landscape ecological risk was consistent with the changes and shifts of landscape. Landscape ecological risk was mainly at lower, low, and high levels in ecological conservation in Sichuan-Yunnan provinces. Natural factors, including elevation and precipitation, generally drove the temporal-spatial variations of landscape ecological risk. In addition, factors such as economy, society and regional accessibility could contribute to prominent impacts on local area suffering from pejorative risk.