小麦目标产量设计及适宜品种选择的动态知识模型

运用知识工程和系统建模方法，在综合考虑决策点光温生产潜力、历史平均产量水平、土壤肥力、肥水管理水平和生产技术水平等诸多因子对增产系数影响的基础上，通过定量计算动态增产系数，建立了具有时空适应性的小麦目标产量设计知识模型；通过定量计算小麦品种特征值与环境因子和生产需求之间的符合度，建立了适宜品种选择的量化知识模型．利用南京、郑州、泰安、保定和太原5个不同生态点的不同年型每日气象资料以及不同历史平均产量水平、土壤肥力和肥水管理水平，对目标产量设计模型进行了实例分析；利用广州、南京、泰安、北京、哈尔滨5个不同生态点常年气象资料以及15个不同品种资料，对品种选择知识模型进行了实例分析．结果表明，所建知识模型具有较好的决策性和广泛适应性．

A dynamic knowledge model for wheat target yield design and variety selection

Based on integrating the effects of yield potential of photosynthesis and temperature, average yield level of last three years, soil fertility, fertilization and water management level and production technology level on yield increment, the dynamic yield increment index was quantified and a wheat knowledge model for design of target yield under different temporal and spatial environments was developed through knowledge engineering and system analysis method. By quantitatively calculating suitability of variety characteristics to environmental conditions and production requirements, a knowledge model for variety selection was established. Case studies on the target yield design with the data sets of five different eco-sites, three climatic years and average yield levels of last three years, two soil fertility levels and three fertilization and water management levels, and on suitable variety selection models with the data sets of five different eco-sites, normal climatic year and fifteen typical varieties indicated a good performance of the model system in decision-making and wide applicability.