斜纹夜蛾核多角体病流行的时间动态

通过对病病幼虫进行跟踪观察，观察了病毒不同浓度处理下，斜纹夜蛾核多角体病的田间流行动态结果表明，在试验病毒浓度范围（３．１＊１０＾５－３．１＾１０＾８ＰＩＢｓ．ｍｌ＾－１）内，幼虫大多在喷施病毒后第４天开始发病，第５－７天为发病高峰，第５－６天开始病死，第６－天为病死高峰，宿主现患高峰民发病高峰基本一致。宿主种群发病和病死时间分布可用时间－剂量－死亡率模型较好地拟合，模型模拟与实测值有较好的吻合（

Epizootic dynamics of Spodoptera litura nuclear polyhedrosi virus

Through investigation of tracking infected Spodoptera litura larvae, the epizootic dynamics of S. litura nuclear polyhedrosis virus(SlNPV) in field was studied with different dosages of SlNPV. The results showed that in the range of virus dosages (3.1 x 10(5)-3.1 x 10(8) PIBs.ml-1), the initial infection syndrome was observed after 4 days of treatment, and peaked in 5-7 days. The larvae mortality occurred after 5-6 days of treatment, and peaked in 6-8 days. The prevalence peak of host was basically coincident to the incidence peak. The distribution of diseased incidence of hosts and disease death time could be quite simulated by time-dosage-mortality model(TDM). Hosmer-Lemoshow test showed that the predicted values well fitted with observed data, and t-test indicated the parameters of the model reached significant level(P < 0.0001). The distribution of diseased prevalence was simulated by Holliday model, the regression of function was significant by F-test, and the parameters of the model reached or approached significant level(p < 0.005). TDM model could be used to predict the daily incidence, prevalence, disease death rate of present generation population of host pest.