高寒区大豆关键生育期低温冷害指标构建

构建高寒区大豆低温冷害指标对系统分析高寒区大豆适应气候变化对策、防灾减灾及其他胁迫的协同适应技术具有参考意义。本研究利用1980—2020年黑龙江省大豆低温冷害灾情史料、生育期资料及研究区78个气象站逐日气温资料,采用GIS技术匹配生育期与气象数据,考虑不同生育阶段积温距平、日平均气温低于生育下限温度的持续日数,构建高寒区大豆综合性冷害指数。利用K-S分布拟合检验及置信区间下限值确定阈值方法,构建高寒区大豆关键生育阶段低温冷害等级指标。结果表明: 大豆播种-出苗期,研究区大豆轻度、中度、重度冷害低温指数下限值分别为0.061、0.115、0.237;出苗-开花期分别为0.072、0.152、0.312;开花-成熟期分别为0.133、0.245、0.412。由低温指数反演的黑龙江省大豆低温冷害时间分布与历史灾情记载吻合度很高;空间上表现出较明显的纬度特征,冷害发生频率呈自南向北逐渐增加的趋势。

Establishment of indices for soybean low temperature damages in key growth stage in high cold region

Establishment of indices for low temperature damage of soybeans is important for systematically analyzing the adaptation strategies to climate change and collaborative adaptation technology for disaster prevention and mitigation and other stresses in high cold region. Based on historical data of low temperature damage and phenophase of soybean from 1980 to 2020 and daily temperature data from 78 meteorological stations in Heilongjiang Province, we used GIS to match the phenophase and meteorological data, by considering the accumulated temperature anomaly in different growth stages, and constructed a comprehensive soybean low temperature damages index (CSCDI) in high cold region. Using K-S distribution fitting test and the lower limit value of confidence intervals, we constructed the level index of soybean low temperature damage. The results showed that the CSCDI lower limits of mild, moderate and severe low temperature damage were 0.061, 0.115 and 0.237 from sowing to emergence stage, were 0.072, 0.152 and 0.312 from emergence to flowering, and 0.133, 0.245 and 0.412 from flowering to maturity, respectively. The time distribution of soybean low temperature damage inversed by CSCDI in Heilongjiang Province was consistent with the historical disaster records. The spatial distribution showed obvious latitude characteristics, with the frequency of low temperature damage increasing gradually from south to north.