基于MODIS-NDVI的区域冬小麦遥感估产——以山东省济宁市为例

以黄淮海平原冬小麦主产区山东省济宁市为研究实例，利用遥感方法，采用250 m分辨率经过Savitzky-Golay滤波技术平滑处理的MODIS-NDVI遥感数据对冬小麦产量进行预测.研究选取了冬小麦关键生育期内0.2～0.8范围的旬NDVI数据，并建立了其与冬小麦产量的关系.同时，采用逐步回归方法筛选建立冬小麦关键生育期旬NDVI与冬小麦产量间关系的估产模型.利用地面实测冬小麦产量数据，对所建的估产模型进行精度检验，结果表明，估产相对误差在-3.6％～3.9％之间.表明利用Savitzky-Golay滤波技术平滑后的作物关键生育期内MODIS-NDVI遥感数据进行冬小麦估产，其方法精度较高，具有一定的可行性.

Regional scale remote sensing-based yield estimation of winter wheat by using MODIS-NDVI data: A case study of Jining City in Shandong Province

Taking Jining City of Shandong Province, one of the most important winter wheat production regions in Huanghuathai Plain as an example, the winter wheat yield was estimated by using the 250 m MODIS-NDVI data smoothed by Savitzky-Golay filter. The NDVI values between 0. 20 and 0. 80 were selected, and the sum of NDVI value for each county was calculated to build its relation with winter wheat yield. By using stepwise regression method, the linear regression model between NDVI and winter wheat yield was established, with the precision validated by the ground survey data. The results showed that the relative error of predicted yield was between - 3.6% and 3.9% , suggesting that the method was relatively accurate and feasible.