中国森林健康生态风险评价

我国森林每年都在遭受诸如过度砍伐、火灾、病虫鼠害、酸雨、气象灾害等各种形式的干扰．这些干扰对我国森林生态系统的健康状况造成很大的威胁．因此，如何有效地管理我国的森林资源，特别是对森林的生态风险管理，提高森林生态系统抵御风险的能力，是森林生态系统健康研究和森林可持续管理的首要任务之一．森林健康生态风险评价是描述和评价人为活动、自然灾害和环境污染等胁迫因子对森林生态系统结构和功能、森林生态系统的健康状况产生不利影响的可能性和危害程度的评估，是森林资源管理的一个重要环节．以我国森林生态系统为例，探讨森林健康生态风险评价的研究方法，并以森林火灾、病虫害和酸雨为生态风险源，运用生态风险评价方法，分析了这些风险源对森林健康的主要危害，对我国森林健康的风险进行了综合评价，并提出不同森林风险区的管理策略．

Forest health ecological risk assessment in China

Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management.