物候模式识别在生态动力预报中的应用

以物候资料和数值天气预报模式输出图为基础,应用模式识别和数理逻辑判断的自动化技术,阐述制作生态动力预报的原理、方法和步骤.生态动力预报技术使传统的物候学在气象学和自动化技术支持下,扩展应用到生态预报业务领域,使物候预报从单站预报阶段发展到区域预报阶段,同时促进了农业气象预报方法从定性、统计阶段向动力预报阶段发展.该方法在农作物播种、长势、灌溉与施肥、病虫害防治等方面具有广阔的应用前景.

Application of phenological pattern recognition in ecological dynamic forecasting

This paper described the principles,methods,and procedures of ecological dynamic forecasting by the automation techniques of pattern recognition and mathematical logic judgment on the basis of phenological data and model output maps from T42L9 numerical weather prediction model.This new forecasting method proposed on the basis of modern meteorology and automation techniques enables the classic phenology to apply to a new field ecological forecasting.It enables phenological forecasting to develop from single-station forecasting stage to regional forecasting stage,which is greatly corresponded to the development stage from single station forecasting stage to synoptic stage in weather forecasting,and enables agro-meteorological forecasting to develop from qualitative and statistical forecasting stage to ecological dynamic forecasting stage.With this new qualitative forecasting method,both the predicted objective and predictors are of considerable bio-physical interests.The ecological dynamic forecasting method could be applied to crop sowing,crop growth,irrigation and fertilization,and diseases and pests control.