吉林省县域环境污染的时空演变特征与影响因素

基于2011年和2015年环境污染物排放和经济社会数据,选取4类污染物的工业源、农业源和城镇生活源排放总量指标,通过构建整体环境污染综合指数和分来源污染指数综合反映吉林省县域尺度单元污染状况,运用Moran I指数、时空跃迁分析和标准差椭圆分析定量研究吉林省环境污染的时空演变特征,并构建空间计量模型对环境污染的影响因素进行分析.结果表明:吉林省环境污染具有空间集聚特征,环境污染主要分布在长春、吉林等中部地区,分来源的环境污染空间分布存在明显的区域差异特征;吉林省县域单元整体环境污染和农业源污染均具有空间相关性,环境污染空间布局的关联结构稳定性高,环境污染具有路径锁定特征;环境污染的空间分布呈现西北-东南分布格局,且环境污染表现出由中心向四周扩散态势,环境污染的重心在43.65-43.66°N,125.83-125.84°E之间变动;地区经济发展水平、城市化水平和农业生产是吉林省县域环境污染和工业源污染的主要驱动因素,产业结构的调整优化改善了整体环境污染与工业源污染状况.化肥的过度使用增加了农业源污染,经济发展水平和城市化水平是城镇生活源污染排放的主要驱动因素.县域整体环境污染和农业源污染均具有空间扩散效应,各自污染状况分别与相邻地区整体环境污染和农业源污染状况密切相关.

Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of county-scale environmental pollution in Jilin Province,Northeast China

Based on pollutant emissions and social-economic data during 2011 and 2015, we selec-ted the total emission index of four pollutants, including the industrial source, agricultural source, and urban living source. The comprehensive index of environmental pollution and sub-source pollution index were built to reflect the pollution of Jilin Province at county scale. Furthermore, the Moran’s I, spatial-temporal transition analysis, and standard deviation ellipse analysis were used to quantitatively examine the spatial-temporal evolutionary characteristics of environmental pollution in Jilin Province. A spatial econometric model was built to analyze the influencing factors of environmental pollution. The results showed that environmental pollution in Jilin Province presented spatial agglomeration characteristics, which was mainly concentrating in central areas such as Changchun and Jilin cities. There were obvious regional differences in the spatial distribution of environmental pollution from different sources. There were spatial correlation of the total environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution separately at county scale in Jilin Province. The correlation structure stability of the spatial distribution of environmental pollution was high, which had path locking characteristic. The spatial distribution of environmental pollution showed a northwest-southeast distribution pattern and a spread from the center to the surroundings. The barycenter of environmental pollution moved in the area between 43.65-43.66° N and 125.83-125.84° E. The level of regional economic development, urbanization level and agricultural production were main driving factors for county-scale environmental pollution and industrial source pollution. The adjustment and optimization of industrial structure had improved the overall environmental pollution and industrial source pollution situation. Overuse of chemical fertilizers significantly increased agricultural source pollution. The level of economic development and urbanization were the main drivers of urban living source pollution. The overall environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution had spatial diffusion effects, and their pollution status was closely related to the overall environmental pollution and agricultural source pollution status in adjacent areas, respectively.