Varying response of breeding waders to experimental manipulation of their habitat and predators

Many ground-nesting bird species including waders are of conservation concern across Europe. Population declines of Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata (hereafter Curlew), a globally Near-threatened wader, exemplify this and are driven by low breeding success due to predation, and loss and degradation of breeding habitat. We tested whether the combined delivery of vegetation management and lethal control of Red Foxes Vulpes vulpes and Carrion Crows Corvus corone and Hooded Crows C. cornix improved Curlew nesting success and breeding abundance across UK study sites over five years. On trial sites, vegetation management improved habitat condition and Curlew distributions shifted towards managed areas. However, changes in predator abundances, Curlew nesting success and Curlew breeding abundance did not differ between trial and reference sites. Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus numbers increased on trial sites and decreased on reference sites, whilst Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago numbers showed no treatment response. Some of these outcomes were associated with additional environmental variables added to Treatment:Year terms in three-way interactions (changes in fox abundance associated with abundance of non-native gamebirds; changes in Crow abundance associated with gamebirds and woodland area; changes in Curlew nesting success associated with crow abundance), highlighting that outcomes depend on site-specific contexts, and consistent responses to interventions cannot be assumed. The difficulty in increasing Curlew nesting success likely relates to underlying mesopredator densities in the UK, which are known to be high in a European context. Our results suggest that a model of delivery like this study, including management of predators using lethal control, at comparable intensities, is highly unlikely to be effective for Curlew or Snipe within agri-environment schemes, but could be for Northern Lapwing. To make progress on wader recovery it is imperative to understand the underlying drivers of high mesopredator densities and address these through landscape-scale intervention and policy changes.