| 用差分方程模型模拟北京2003年SARS疫情 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘双,李海龙.用差分方程模型模拟北京2003年SARS疫情[J].生物数学学报,2006,21(1):21-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘双 李海龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 鞍山师范学院,数学系,辽宁,鞍山,114005
2. 鞍山师范学院,数学系,辽宁,鞍山,114005;中国地质大学(武汉)环境学院,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(40372111) |
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| 摘 要： | 根据北京2003年SARS疫情发展的实际情况,利用差分方程建立模拟北京疫情发展过程(2003年3月20日至7月14日)的数学模型．建立主要由模拟值与实际统计值之差的平方和构成的目标函数．最后利用Gauss-Newton最优化方法,对模型中参数进行估计．
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| 关 键 词： | SARS 差分方程 数学模型 Gauss-Newton最优化方法 反问题 参数估计 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-9626（2006）01-0021-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2003-12-20 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年12月20 |
Simulation of SARS Epidemic in Beijing in 2003 by Difference Equation |
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| LIU Shuang,LI Hai-long.Simulation of SARS Epidemic in Beijing in 2003 by Difference Equation[J].Journal of Biomathematics,2006,21(1):21-27. |
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| Authors: | LIU Shuang LI Hai-long |
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| Institution: | 1 Department of Mathematics, Anshan Normal University, Anshan Liaoning 114005 China;2 School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan Hubei 430074 China |
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| Abstract: | This thesis analysed the observed statistical data of SARS in Beijing in 2003. Then a mathematical model was established to simulate the SARS development in Beijing by difference equations,and an objective function was also established which mainly consists of the sum of squares of the differences between the simulated and observed statistical data of SARS in Beijing. At last, the parameters were estimated by Gallss-Newton optimization method. |
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| Keywords: | Sever acute respiratory syndrome Difference equation Mathematics model Gauss-Newton optimization method Inverse problem Parameter estimation |
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